Introduction

United States (US) citizens vote for president and vice president every four years. The four-year period during which US presidents hold office is called 'term'. A 'midterm' election is an election that takes place halfway through the presidential term, that is, two years after the presidential elections. They happen across all states, and they are for offices other than that of the president or vice president – all seats of the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate seats.

The elections take place in two rounds. First, voters choose a party's nominee for the general election in primaries that take place over several months, with each state setting its own rules and dates under state law. Types of primaries vary not only between states but also within a state. Three main types of primaries are:

The second round is the general election. Following the Election Act of 1845, the midterm general election is held on the same day across all states in November. General elections for federal offices – president, vice president, and members of the US Congress – are held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November in even-numbered years. In 2026, it will be held on Tuesday, 3 November.

The US electoral system uses a plurality rule (highest number of votes cast) to designate the winner in most states (41). In some of these states, top two (California, Washington) or top four (Alaska) vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of their party affiliations. Nine states (e.g. Alabama, Georgia, Maine, Texas) require majority (50 %+1 vote); if no candidate receives that percentage of votes, a run-off election between the top two candidates determines the winner.

Contested seats

In the 2026 midterm elections, all 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority (including one independent member who caucuses with Republicans), with two vacancies. Unlike senators and governors, House representatives are elected for two-year terms. For 71 of the 435 seats, the incumbent is not running for re-election. Recent mid-decade redistricting efforts have further reinforced safe political boundaries: as of September 2026, only about 10 % of the seats are projected to be competitive in the forthcoming midterms, with 22 true toss-ups – races so close that either party could win – and an additional 21 districts leaning towards one party, according to the non-partisan Cook Political Report. Out of 46 districts identified as battleground races in 2026 by Ballotpedia, 25 seats are currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans.

In the Senate, the Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority (the 47 seats include two Independents who caucus with Democrats, i.e. align themselves with the Democratic caucus for voting and committee work; therefore, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach the 51 total seats allowing them to command a majority. At the November midterms, only 33 out of 100 seats, plus two special elections (so 35 in total), are being contested, since senators are elected for six-year terms and one third of the Senate seats is elected every two years. Republicans enter the midterms defending 22 seats (20 regular and two special election seats – one in Florida to fill the remaining two years of the term vacated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and one in Ohio to complete the term won in 2022 by JD Vance, who resigned in 2025 to become US vice president), whereas Democrats are defending 13 seats in the Senate. According to nonpartisan trackers, at the time of writing, with 14 out of 22 Republican seats considered completely safe, Democrats' best chance to win a majority is in competitive battlegrounds such as Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Generic congressional ballot polls point to a change in party control in Congress after the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats leading by 5 to 13 points as of September. Polls and betting markets have also been indicating a chance that Democrats could regain the Senate majority in November. However, in the Senate, unlike in the House, 60 votes are generally needed to pass legislation, except for certain categories of legislation that may pass with a simple majority. This makes bipartisan negotiating necessary and much more common regardless of which party holds the majority.

Congress is expected to welcome at least 99 new members when it convenes in January 2027, given the 83 representatives and senators who have announced they are not seeking re-election in 2026, and the 16 members who resigned or passed away during the current Congress. In comparison, the 119th Congress welcomed 74 new members in 2025.

The 3 November date will also see 39 gubernatorial elections, with 18 incumbent governors running for re-election and 21 either term-limited or not seeking re-election. The results of gubernatorial elections sometimes contradict those of national elections: for example, Kansas has two Republican senators but a Democratic governor, while Georgia has two Democratic senators and a Republican governor. In addition to their state-level policy responsibilities and other executive roles, in many states, governors can be a major force when it comes to redistricting efforts, for example due to their veto powers over districts drawn by their states' legislatures. In this sense, the results of the 2026 gubernatorial elections will affect the 2028 congressional elections.

Redistricting

While each state is represented by two senators, each of the 435 members of the House of Representatives represents an electoral district, whose boundaries can typically be redrawn every 10 years based on demographic changes as reflected in the US census data. Districts are commonly drawn respecting the criteria of contiguity (all parts of a district are physically connected), compactness (reasonably shaped districts), and keeping together communities with shared social, cultural, racial, economic, or other attributes. While redistricting is a state process, it is governed by the US Constitution, federal law, and judicial precedent. Redistricting can exceptionally occur mid-decade, when courts invalidate existing maps for violating the US Constitution or specific legislation, or – as explained below – when states redraw maps voluntarily. When district boundaries are adapted to reduce competitiveness, create 'safe seats' or otherwise favour a political party, this is called gerrymandering. On 29 April 2026, in its Louisiana  v.  Callais ruling, the Supreme Court struck down, with a 6-3 decision, Louisiana's congressional map, effectively invalidating one of Louisiana's two majority-Black districts, out of a total of six. Specifically, while ruling the map an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, the Court narrowed the application of a specific provision of the Voting Rights Act by requiring proof that intentional race-based districting is required to satisfy constitutional standards.

Retaining control of the House after the 2026 midterms is naturally a priority for the Republican Party and President Donald Trump. Consequently, they have undertaken an unprecedented mid-cycle redistricting effort in states such as Alabama, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and the above-mentioned Louisiana, to protect the narrow Republican majority. Democrats have followed suit with their own initiative in California. Overall, with altered House maps in several states, 10 % of Americans will vote in a different district than in the 2024 elections.

Voter preoccupations

While the result of each election will depend on the candidates and their policy choices, experts have identified several horizontal issues that will also likely influence the midterms. They note that the president's party almost always loses ground in midterm House elections, as has happened in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections stretching back to 1938. Both exceptions (1998 with President Clinton's impeachment and 2002, following the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks) reflected unusual circumstances. In addition, they note that a president's job approval has a strong impact on the outcome of midterm House elections. Indeed, past elections have shown that the higher a president's job approval, the lower the losses that his party will experience. In mid-September, President Trump's approval numbers stood at 39 %, reflecting voter preoccupations. At the same time, a Gallup poll from September found that 16 % of Americans approve and 79 % disapprove of the job performance of the members of Congress on both sides of the aisle. After an exceptional Republican midterms convention, as the 3 November elections draw near, an increasing number of Republicans publicly break with the President over high gasoline prices, immigration issues and the Iran war. At the same time, the President is seen actively campaigning, in particular in red, i.e. traditionally Republican-leaning, states, showing his support for the Republican candidates.

An Economist article ranked voter preoccupations in order of importance, and segmented according to voters' political orientation. For example, taxes and government spending (9 % versus 3 %), as well as immigration (16 % versus 2 %), are key issues for Republicans, while Democrats consider climate change (9 % versus 1 %) and healthcare (13 % versus 6 %) more important. Other issues, however, are shared among voters independently of their orientation on the political spectrum. These are inflation (32 % of Republicans and 30 % of Democrats); and jobs and the economy (14 % of Democrats and 13 % of Republicans).

Other salient issues

Powers of Congress

Each chamber is vested with significant powers that also affect the executive and judicial branches. The most visible power is legislation. Each term, Congress adopts hundreds of bills (legislation) and resolutions from the roughly 17 000 introduced by members, on average. Through these laws, Congress can also override certain presidential directives.²

A key power vested with Congress is nomination. Specifically, the president nominates and – following the consent of the Senate – appoints ambassadors; officers in the Foreign Service; federal judges and Supreme Court justices; officers in cabinet-level departments, independent agencies and military services; and US marshals. The consent of the Senate is also asked for the approval of international treaties, although in the last decades, presidents have instead chosen to use 'executive agreements' to enter international agreements without bringing them before the Senate for approval.

Another important and highly visible power of Congress is that to investigate and subpoena (compel) testimony, documents, or other evidence from individuals or entities as part of its investigative and oversight functions. Since the 2000s, Congress has launched major investigations, which include the 9/11 Commission, the 2007‑2009 financial crisis inquiries, and the Select Committee to investigate the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

The Constitution also provides that the House of Representatives has the power of impeachment, and that the Senate has the power to try impeachments. A two-thirds vote of the Senate is required for a conviction, and the penalty for an impeached official upon conviction is removal from office, without the possibility of appeal.

Lastly, both chambers judge the qualifications of their own members in contested elections, and both can censure or expel their own members in specific cases, although the practice is rare.

Potential outcomes and their implications

If Republicans manage to hold their majorities in Congress, the current direction of domestic and foreign policies is likely to continue, and possibly intensify, at least until campaigning for the 2028 elections heat up.

However, a Democratic majority in one or both chambers of Congress would mean that they could undertake efforts to frustrate administration policies, although experts note that such initiatives could run into structural hurdles. While Democrats could block Republican legislative moves, experts note that, even with majorities in both chambers, Democrats would struggle to drive policy through legislation. This is because the US president still holds veto power, which can only be overcome by a two-thirds majority in each chamber, a number the Democratic Party is unlikely to reach. In addition, the president has broad powers in areas such as control and operation of the federal government, federal agencies, and in foreign affairs, where he can issue executive orders. While these orders can be subject to judicial review and also be overturned by the next president, they could still drive policy in the short term.

Another strategy for the Democratic Party, if it takes the Senate, is to withhold approval for potential future presidential appointments in the federal administration, for instance, or (in case of vacancy) in the Federal Reserve or the Supreme Court.

Any change of control in Congress could also lead to investigations into alleged fraud or corruption of members of the executive, allowing Congress to hold government officials or agency members accountable. According to a September 2026 Gallup poll , 89 % of US adults consider government corruption to be widespread. While investigated officials may invoke executive privilege for certain communications, public hearings and subpoenas can generate negative publicity for the individuals concerned, whatever the outcome of the inquiry.

Lastly, if Democrats secure a majority in both Houses, they could launch a third impeachment procedure against President Trump, although experts note that both investigations and impeachment are procedures that can be costly and time-consuming and still fail to deliver concrete results.

Timeline: From primaries to new Congress

Primary elections ran from 3 March to 15 September 2026. Voter turnout for primaries is consistently lower than in general elections in the US.

Election Day is Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Polls open as early as 6.00 local time on the East Coast, and last polls close at 1.00 Eastern Time. The state of Alaska has the latest closing time in the country, which corresponds to 7.00 Brussels time. While a reasonably clear picture of results is usually known by the morning of the following day, these counts are unofficial and preliminary.

After Election Day, local officials 'canvass' votes and conduct post-election audits to confirm the validity of ballots and accuracy of vote totals. This process typically takes anywhere from several days to a few weeks. After counting, canvassing, and auditing votes cast, state election officials end the process by certifying election results within deadlines ranging from two to five weeks after Election Day. Certification attests that the final election results are complete and accurate.

Meanwhile, Congress is scheduled to be in recess until 9 November, when it will reconvene for a 'lame duck' session. During this time, the House and Senate can still pass legislation, including spending bills, and conduct oversight, while the Senate can confirm ambassadors, and judicial and executive nominees. From its return in November, Congress will focus on passing bills to fund the government from 11 December 2026 onwards, including passing the annual defence funding legislation before the end of the session.

During this transition period, parties will discuss their picks for various Congressional leadership roles, including speaker of the House and majority and minority leaders, party whips, and committee chairs for both the House and Senate. While remaining members of the 119th Congress will continue to occupy their assigned office spaces, a lottery system, as well as members' seniority, are used to assign offices to the new members of the incoming 120th Congress.

A new Congress convenes at 12.00 (midday) on 3 January in the year following elections, as mandated by the 20th Amendment of the US Constitution, unless they decide on another date. The House and Senate of the 120th Congress will convene for the first time that same day. The House elects its speaker by roll-call vote. To win, a candidate needs a majority of the votes cast at the time of the vote (not necessarily the numerical majority of the full House membership). The newly elected speaker then swears in the representatives of the 120th Congress, all of whom were up for election given the House's two-year term. US Vice President JD Vance will remain the president of the Senate. As the presiding officer, he has the sole power to break a tie vote, and formally presides over the receiving and counting of electoral ballots cast in presidential elections. In addition, the president pro tempore presides over the Senate in the absence of the Vice President, or further delegates this role to other senators. Senator Chuck Grassley (R‑Iowa) currently holds this position, although a new president pro tempore will need to be elected in the case of a change in party control of the chamber. The Senate also swears in its newly elected senators, replacing one third of this continuous body, and follows a process for the proceedings of the first day.