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Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture
Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture
Anne Altmayer, Members' Research Service
Summary
In its 'Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture' the European Commission is expected to outline the future of the sectors and to provide a coherent policy framework for the next 15 years. The main focus of the paper will be to determine what the sectors should look like by 2040, and what steps should be taken to achieve the identified objectives. The 'vision' will cover the sector's most pressing issues, ranging from climate change and environmental degradation and their impact on fish stocks, and the social and economic situation of fishing communities, to generational renewal and fleet modernisation. The 'Vision 2040' will be based on earlier policy commitments as well as the conclusions and results of recent European Commission reports and studies. It will also take on board stakeholders' and Member States' views on the future of fisheries policy. The European Parliament already set out its ideas on the future common fisheries policy in a 2024 resolution.
Purpose statement
This European Parliamentary Research Service paper aims to inform Members on issues related to a forthcoming Commission initiative. It highlights the main choices which may shape the initiative and which Members may wish to explore ahead of formal Commission adoption. Based on documentary and other sources, it reflects the information available at the time of writing.
For further information on this topic, Members and staff of the European Parliament may contact the author.
Issues at stake
The European Commission envisages a long-term overarching policy framework for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. The purpose of its 'Vision 2040' is to establish a 15-year strategy to address the sector's main structural challenges such as changes in the natural environment, the pressing need to fish sustainably, an ageing workforce, unpredictable consumer demand, the need for fleet modernisation, energy transition, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Its 'Vision 2040' will be based on four interconnected focal points:
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Demand: how to strengthen consumer trust and ensure that European Union products are appreciated for their quality, sustainability and traceability?
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Supply: how to support sustainable production, resilience to climate change impacts and foster innovation in fishing and farming techniques?
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Labour force: how to improve working conditions in the sector and attract young people while ensuring that skills keep pace with technology?
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Tools: what kind of policy, regulatory, financial and governance instruments are needed to support the transition?
Development
The 'Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture' was announced in the 2026 Commission work programme as a non-legislative initiative under the 'Sustaining our quality of life: food security, water and nature' heading. The preparation of 'Vision 2040' is also one of the tasks referred to the Commissioner for fisheries and oceans in the mission letter prepared by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
The European Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans, Costas Kadis, presented the four 'Vision 2040' focal points at the European Ocean Days 2026 in March 2026, which also hosted a panel on the subject. It was one of the topics discussed at the European Maritime Days in May 2026 and is mentioned in the Commission communication 'Sustainable fishing in the EU: state of play and orientations for 2027', published in June 2026. The paper is expected in autumn 2026.
Main points
The upcoming 'Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture' is likely to consider the question of what the EU's fisheries and aquaculture sectors should look like in 2040 and what needs to be done now to make that future possible. It is meant to address the sector's structural challenges across the entire value chain, covering fisheries, aquaculture and aquatic food processing.
In this endeavour, 'Vision 2040' will draw on conclusions and commitments made in recent landmark papers:
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the 2026 evaluation of the common fisheries policy (CFP) regulation;
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the 2025 European ocean pact;
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the 2025 'Fishers of the Future' foresight study;
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the 2023 energy transition action plan.
Stakeholders' views collected in the Commission's call for evidence in March 2026 will also feed into the paper.
Evaluation of the common fisheries policy regulation
The Commission evaluation of the common fisheries policy regulation, published on 30 April 2026, paints a mixed picture of the state of play. Covering the period between 2014 and 2024, the evaluation shows clear progress in reducing overfishing and increasing the proportion of fish stocks at sustainable levels, from 50 % in 2014 to 63 % in 2022. However, the goal of sustainably exploiting all stocks has not been achieved. In addition, EU aquaculture remains small and falls short of its potential. The landing obligation, which prohibits discarding unwanted catches, has largely failed and did not lead to significant changes in fishing practices. Furthermore, the sector's socio-economic performance did not meet the expectations of the 2013 reform due to reasons including an ageing fleet, high energy dependency, and a difficult generational renewal. The Commission concluded that inconsistent implementation and enforcement across EU Member States is the main challenge, rather than the CFP's rules themselves.
European ocean pact
The European ocean pact, adopted by the Commission on 5 June 2025, is a non-legislative strategy providing an overarching framework for all ocean-related EU policies. The initiative's main objective is to achieve greater coherence between the different pieces of legislation, policies, strategies and programmes. While affirming the EU's commitment to protecting and preserving marine ecosystems it also aims to ensure the long-term sustainability of the blue economy, manage the growing demand for maritime space and marine resources and to foster research and knowledge. Actions and initiatives in this pact are grouped under six priorities: ocean health; a sustainable blue economy; coastal communities and islands; ocean research, skills and literacy; maritime security and defence; and ocean governance.To achieve the targets set out in the ocean pact, the Commission will table an ocean act by the end of 2026.
'Fishers of the future' foresight study
This 2025 study, carried out on behalf of the European Commission, outlines possible scenarios for the fisheries sector in 2050. Based on two crucial and uncertain variables: the environmental crisis and the consumer demand for EU-caught fish; the paper develops four possible scenarios. These range from generally positive to generally negative, starting from 'Thriving Responsibly', which implies mitigated climate change, stable fish stocks, rising demand for EU-caught fish and fishing communities able to ensure profitability, followed by less positive 'Chasing Declining Stocks' and 'Contested Markets', and finally, least desirable 'Scarcity and Survival', characterised by environmental degradation, reduced availability of EU-caught fish, declining demand and small-scale fishing communities facing an uncertain future. According to the authors, all scenarios are plausible and aim to make decision makers reflect on ways in which policy could accentuate the positive aspects captured in the profiles and mitigate and combat the negative ones.
Energy transition
In its 2023 action plan on decarbonising EU fisheries and aquaculture, the European Commission outlines two directions of change related to energy provision in the sector: it aims to increase energy efficiency in the short to medium term, while making a gradual switch from fossil fuels to renewable and low-carbon energy sources in the longer term. The final goal is to achieve a CO2-neutral footprint by 2050. To accelerate this energy transition, the action plan includes initiatives to stimulate research and innovation, develop the required labour skills, and improve the business environment, including funding opportunities. Moreover, an 'energy transition partnership for EU fisheries and aquaculture' aims to steer the process, involving all stakeholders. A recurring point of discussion in this context is the capacity definition in the common fisheries policy: under the CFP, fishing fleet capacity ceilings apply to Member States, defined on the basis of the gross tonnage and engine power of vessels. New technologies however typically require more weight than conventional diesel engines, which would increase a vessel's capacity and could lead to a ceiling being exceeded.
Stakeholders' and Member States' positions
The European Commission's call for evidence, carried out in March 2026, gathered a broad range of positions from interested parties, ranging from industry representatives, environmental non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and research institutes to Member States' authorities.1
A group of stakeholders, co-led by the fishing organisation Low Impact Fishers of Europe and the environmental NGO Seas At Risk, put forward its own vision for the EU fisheries sector. Under the title 'Rethinking fisheries' the group calls for a profound transformation of European fisheries, shifting away from an extractive, industrial system to a regenerative and equitable model, that conserves biodiversity, restores ecosystem functions, upholds social justice, and ensures that marine space and resources are shared fairly. According to the stakeholders, the most pressing issues of overfishing, climate change, pollution and growing inequalities at the expense of small-scale fishing communities need to be tackled in a holistic way. The paper envisages a 'new culture of seafood', and suggests a number of measures for the vision to become reality, including a stronger focus on bottom-up approaches, adequate financing, technical innovations, novel organisational structures, innovative business models and diversification of fisheries activities.
Europêche, the Association of National Organisations of Fishing Enterprises in the European Union, questions the very need for a new vision and calls for immediate action instead. The organisation points to the sector's challenges, such as falling revenues, shrinking employment, and continuous reduction in fleet size. It also highlights the EU's increasing dependency on imports. Europêche calls for the development of an omnibus fisheries proposal to address, for instance, inconsistencies across different pieces of legislation, reduce the administrative burden, and correct the unintended consequences of legislation. According to the association, the Commission should decisively address environmental degradation, including pollution, eutrophication and climate change, instead of focusing disproportionately on fisheries. It also calls to reconsider the position of fisheries within the increasing competition for maritime space, and a policy framework that creates a level playing field for fishermen at international level.
The Federation of European Aquaculture Producers (FEAP) welcomes a long-term strategic vision for the fisheries and aquaculture sector in principle, provided that it is based on concrete goals, clear direction, and performance indicators. According to the organisation, the current stagnation of the EU aquaculture sector results from the numerous challenges businesses face, including limited space availability and an unsuitable legal framework with disproportionate weight given to environmental legislation in some Member States. FEAP highlights that fish farming has one of the lowest carbon footprints among food production systems and stresses the sector's importance for EU food sovereignty. The paper calls on the European Commission to acknowledge the strategic value of fish farming for the EU's food self-sufficiency and stresses the need for a dedicated common EU aquaculture policy as well as predictable, scaled, sector-specific structural funding.
Client Earth, a global environmental law organisation, considers the 'Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture' a chance for the Commission to provide a coherent policy for a better future for fishing and coastal communities, while ensuring a resilient and sovereign Europe. For the NGO, the protection of marine waters and the safeguarding of Europe's own fish populations, including in the context of climate protection, is the very foundation of this future policy. According to Client Earth the deplorable conditions of Europe's seas and the poor status of many fish populations endangers both the autonomy of European food supply and the livelihood of coastal communities. In this context, the organisation underlines the importance of policy coherence both at EU and Member State level, as well as adequate financial support strictly aligned with policy objectives.
The Spanish Ministry for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food welcomes the development of the 'Vision 2040 for fisheries and aquaculture' as an opportunity to develop a long-term fisheries and aquaculture policy. In view of current and upcoming challenges, the authority suggests building 'Vision 2040' around four main axes: regulatory simplification; strengthening scientific knowledge; a holistic approach to sustainability, integrating the environmental, economic and social dimensions; and a stronger focus on the human factor, in particular by improving fishery working conditions. Moreover, the Ministry calls for a specific policy approach for aquaculture, given the sector's role in strengthening food sovereignty. At international level, the Ministry highlights the need to ensure a level playing field vis-à-vis third countries and underlines the necessity of adequate and explicit funding in the next multiannual financial framework.
The association of European Fisheries and Aquaculture Research Organisations (EFARO), representing the main European research institutes involved in fisheries and aquaculture research, highlights the importance of securing financial and administrative resources for the provision of scientific data. Since the EU's CFP relies on knowledge-based decision making, the association calls for a 'Vision 2040' that ensures the information, data and work force are available for the management, conservation and restoration of marine living resources. While highlighting the work of international and national research organisations, the association warns against scaling down national activities as a result of reduced EU funding shares. According to EFARO, many different financing programmes and large room for manoeuvre for Member States regarding national resource allocation would result in fragmentation of resources and hamper the realisation of the goals enshrined in the CFP.
European Parliament views
Parliament set out its overall vision on the CFP in a January 2024 resolution, in which it emphasised the need for the continued implementation of the CFP, but also regretted that socio-economic aspects had not been given sufficient consideration. With regard to a potential new reform, Parliament called for certain changes to be considered. On the landing obligation, for example, Parliament stated that it should be reviewed, notably to address the issue of 'choke species' (i.e. species for which, once the quota is reached, fishing may need to be stopped altogether to avoid the risk of by-catch while targeting other species). Parliament also considers the current fleet capacity ceilings to be an obstacle to the energy transition. Parliament also reiterated its view on the need for a broader definition of small-scale fisheries beyond just vessel length.
Moreover, Parliament has expressed its opinion on numerous aspects related to the future development of the CFP: for instance in a 2024 resolution on decarbonisation and fleet modernisation, and a 2026 resolution on 'Fisheries management approaches for safeguarding sensitive species, tackling invasive species and benefiting local economies'. Members are currently working on two more texts: a resolution entitled 'Strengthening the resilience of the EU fisheries sector in dealing with major marine incidents and hazards' and a resolution focusing on 'The role of social, economic and environmental standards in safeguarding fair competition for all aquatic food products and improving food security'.
Endnotes
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