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European integrated framework for climate resilience
European integrated framework for climate resilience
Dessislava Yougova, Members' Research Service
Issues at stake
In its 2026 work programme, the Commission announced a European framework for climate resilience, in line with the Commission President's political guidelines published in July 2024. The initiative should embed the 'climate resilience by design' principle across policies, sectors and funding decisions, underpinned by a robust science-based approach.
Key legislative elements:
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common EU climate reference scenario, based on a 3°C global warming trajectory by 2100;
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duty to consider the reference scenario in national climate-risk assessments;
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duty on the EU and Member States to assign 'risk owners' for every major climate risk in key sectors;
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obligation for Member States to develop climate resilience strategic plans.
Non-legislative elements:
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open-access digital tools for climate risk awareness and assessments and for relevant adaptation solutions at regional, local and sectoral levels;
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financial, technical and strategic support, and knowledge sharing for local authorities;
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measures to increase resilience finance, mobilise private investments, and address insurance protection gap;
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encouraging the development of products, services and innovative solutions for climate resilience.
Purpose statement
This European Parliamentary Research Service paper aims to inform Members on issues related to a forthcoming Commission initiative. It highlights the main choices which may shape the initiative and which Members may wish to explore ahead of formal Commission adoption. Based on documentary and other sources, it reflects the information available at the time of writing.
For further information on this topic, Members and staff of the European Parliament may contact the author.
Developments and insights – European Commission
On 20 October 2026, the Commission is expected to present a European integrated framework for climate resilience including a communication, a legislative proposal for regulation, a recommendation addressed to both public and private sectors and a Commission Decision. A policy debate in the Environment Council is provisionally scheduled for 11 December 2026.
The initiative aims to strengthen coherence between EU policy, national frameworks and local implementation. 'Resilience by design' will serve as a guiding principle at all levels of governance, promoting anticipatory and proactive approaches in policy and investment decision-making and planning. Member States, public-sector authorities and private-sector stakeholders should apply this principle in their decisions. The initiative will also integrate the 'just resilience' approach, while leaving out the 'do no significant harm' principle.
In May 2025, Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra stated that the forthcoming legislation would 'make a step change, turning risk awareness into practical strategies that build resilience. It will promote preparedness and national planning to make sure that every country and every region in the EU has a robust adaptation system'. In line with the recommendations of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change, the Commission is now preparing a common reference trajectory, based on a level of global warming of 3°C in 2100. This trajectory will be introduced in the forthcoming legislation and must serve as a shared reference for climate risk assessments at all levels of EU and national policymaking. It will be regularly adjusted in line with evolving scientific evidence.
Member States will be required to develop climate resilience strategic plans covering the most vulnerable policy sectors at EU and national level. These plans would be a prerequisite for accessing EU funding. There will also be a duty on both the EU and Member States to assign risk ownership, ensuring appropriate risk responsiveness in the most affected sectors and policies. The Commission will not propose legally binding targets but a few common outcome-based indicators, considering that legal obligations in the climate resilience framework should remain limited, in line with the better regulation agenda. The new regulation will operationalise Article 5 of the European climate law, which mandates climate adaptation progress for both the EU and Member States, and will amend the Energy Union and climate action governance regulation accordingly.
To improve risk awareness, the Commission is about to launch the first prototype of an EU climate hazard viewer. Based on Copernicus data, it will provide regional and local actors with access to tailored and interactive information on how climate risks will affect particular assets, regions or sectors. The non-legislative package will also include recommendations for adaptation solutions and best practices to drive implementation at the local level, based on the results of the EU Mission on Adaptation initiative. The forthcoming initiative aims to support EU companies in developing climate resilient products, services and technologies and enable them to take advantage of new market opportunities in climate resilient solutions and innovation. To enhance the competitiveness of these offerings, the Commission has already put forward several measures for public consultation. The new initiative will also aim to integrate the climate resilience principle into public budgets, investments and financial decisions. It will include policy measures to scale up resilience financing and mobilise private capital, as EU funds and national budgets alone cannot cover the cost of climate-related economic impacts. The initiative also envisages measures to improve access to affordable insurance and reduce the insurance protection gap.
Why is the initiative important?
Building climate resilience is an environmental imperative and a critical issue for the EU economy, security, and competitiveness. Recent EU policy strategic documents highlight:
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the central place of adaptation policy in ensuring the EU's competitiveness, security, and prosperity, alongside strong mitigation policies;
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the essential role of climate resilience for maintaining vital societal functions, preserving employment and ensuring financial stability;
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the need for a European climate adaptation plan that integrates the 'preparedness by design' principle into all relevant EU policies and investments, and across sectors.
Adaptation is about moderating and preventing climate impacts, and seizing opportunities
Europe is warming at twice the global average rate, with temperatures rising by around 0.56°C per decade since the mid-1990s. This rapid warming heightens natural hazards (floods, wildfires, heatwaves, droughts, storms), disrupting long-standing living conditions.
In January 2026, Storm Kristin swept across central Portugal and Andalusia, whereas Cyclone Harry hit southern Italy. With hurricane-force winds reaching 150 km/h, losses in Sicily alone were estimated at €1 billion. In 2025, over one million hectares burned in the EU. Between 2008 and 2024, the wildfires displaced about 490 000 people and the average annual cost was estimated at €2.7 billion. The 2022 heatwaves resulted in up to 70 000 deaths in Europe. In October 2024, Spain faced its worst floods in decades.The equivalent of a full year's rain fell in many areas in a day, claiming over 200 lives in the Valencian Community.
France has recently updated its reference warming scenario to a global warming level of 3°C up to 2100. Its adaptation plan now aligns with a national reference trajectory based on 2°C warming in 2030, 2.7°C in 2050 and 4°C in 2100.
No less than 36 major climate-driven risks threaten EU ecosystems, critical infrastructure and services, the EU economy and finance. The increasing frequency and severity of the climate impacts lead to greater damage, losses and costs, particularly when multiple hazards occur simultaneously. The Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimates that around 87 million people in the EU-27 and the UK are exposed to multiple natural hazards. The cascading effects of climate risks across sectors and borders can pose system-wide challenges and affect whole societies. Climate change can disrupt supply chains, commercial activities and profits, undermining the EU economy, which is heavily reliant on global supply chains. Climate change also acts as a risk multiplier, aggravating existing social, economic, health and environmental risks and crises. This makes Europe particularly vulnerable to climate impacts due to its ageing population, widespread chronic diseases, and persistent regional and urban-rural disparities, especially regarding population density and income level. Climate risks are increasingly recognised as conflict drivers with implications for national security and foreign policy.
However, resilience can be a driver for competitiveness and innovation. Recent analysis estimates that the global climate adaptation and resilience market may grow to between US$0.5 trillion and US$1.3 trillion annually from 2025 to 2030, due to the urgent need for adaptation and resilience solutions (products and services), which are expected to create 'new value pools across value chains, presenting a growing investment opportunity'.
Current EU adaptation policy is not fit for purpose
Analysis by the European Environment Agency (EEA) of EU progress towards climate resilience finds that adaptation policies are making progress, but implementation remains slow due to several common barriers. These include data gaps, a lack of decision-support tools, coordination challenges across governance levels and sectors, unclear risk ownership, limited financing, and insufficient local resources to turn national targets into tailored measures at local level.
While 14 countries have national or federal laws with adaptation provisions, only Germany has a specific federal adaptation act.1 National climate risk assessments differ widely in methodologies, the use of reference warming trajectories and climate scenarios, and sectoral and thematic coverage. While some Member States have reported using indicator-based monitoring, evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation actions is still a challenge due to limited use of outcome-based indicators. Mainstreaming adaptation objectives into sector-specific policies is a key instrument for efficient implementation. Many countries have legal obligations for integrating adaptation into all or some sectoral policies, but developing sector-specific adaptation plans to address vulnerabilities and implement targeted planning remains uncommon.
In addition, the significant variation in national policy frameworks (assessments, plans and instruments), combined with the lack of common definitions, measurable targets and agreed indicators, impedes both shared understanding and coordinated climate resilience action across Europe.
Securing funding for adaptation actions is a substantial challenge across all Member States. Only a few countries have dedicated adaptation funds for national or sector-specific measures and incentivise adaptation efforts. Private financing remains low, although governments use various financial instruments (e.g. grants, fiscal incentives) to attract private capital.
Adaptation finance is struggling to keep pace with climate change
Between 2021 and 2024, climate and weather-related extremes in the EU caused direct economic losses of assets estimated at over €208 billion, with the highest annual value occurring in 2021 (€65.2 billion).
The cost of a scenario limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the EU-27 and UK is estimated at around €40 billion annually. A 2°C scenario will raise this to €80-120 billion, while a 3-4°C scenario will escalate needs to €175‑200 billion. Experts point to the current knowledge gap on adaptation costs, which hinders timely actions, investment decisions and efforts to boost public and private adaptation finance.
EU-wide annual investment needs across key sectors are estimated at €69 billion by 2050. Infrastructure will require the largest share of adaptation investment (€29 billion per year), followed by ecosystems (€21 billion), the food sector (€11.5 billion), and health (€7 billion). The economy and finance sector shows the lowest investment needs (€720 million), likely due to the difficulty of costing financial and regulatory measures. Cross-cutting measures such as research, innovation, education, and awareness will need around €300 million annually.
In 2025, both public and private adaptation funding for transport, energy and agriculture in the EU was estimated to be €3.35‑3.85 billion, €2.36‑2.47 billion, and €9.3‑9.8 billion, respectively. To make these sectors resilient to climate change, €53 billion annually will be needed by 2050 under a moderate emissions scenario, rising to €137 billion under a high emissions scenario. The annual funding shortfall for adaptation will range from €39 billion to €120 billion by 2050, depending on the emissions scenario.
The Commission emphasises the need for a forward-looking approach when assessing future investments exposed to physical risks.
Europe also faces a significant insurance protection gap regarding losses caused by weather and climate-related extremes. The EEA reports that, between 1980 and 2024, less than 20 % of total losses were privately insured. In some Member States the share was below 3 %, while in Belgium, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands it exceeded 35 %.
Member State positions and interested parties' opinions
In December 2025, the Council of the EU called for transformational change to enhance the EU's and Member States' preparedness and resilience to climate change by proactively integrating climate resilience by design across legislation, policies and sectors. It welcomed the Commission's plan for a legal framework supporting climate resilience action at all levels of governance, while respecting the principle of subsidiarity and taking into account local specificities. The Council emphasised the need for both public and private financing and for accessible and affordable insurance. It also highlighted the importance of healthy ecosystems and nature-based solutions as cost-effective means for climate resilience.
Under the Cyprus Presidency, climate and water resilience were discussed at the informal meeting of Environment and Climate Ministers in Lefkosia on 5-6 February 2026, attended by Commissioners Jessika Roswall and Wopke Hoekstra. Ministers backed a coherent, cross-sectoral approach linking EU policies, funding instruments and national action, with a focus on supporting vulnerable regions and Member States.
Belgium's note to the Council in March 2026 already outlines future discussions on the upcoming initiative. The country supports a flexible EU climate resilience framework, focused on guidance, with few output-oriented obligations and no additional administrative layers. It advocates non-binding EU common reference scenarios and indicators, and a limited set of structuring requirements for adaptation strategies and plans. Beyond these, the content, structure, methodologies and implementation should remain indicative. Belgium insists that 'frontrunners' should not be disadvantaged by the new initiative, highlights the importance of nature-based solutions, and calls for greater coherence in data, methodologies, and timeframes.
In its consultation response, the European Banking Federation (EBF) emphasises the need for stronger prevention frameworks with predictable funding; mechanisms facilitating banks' support and investment in resilience projects; and greater capital-market readiness for large-scale financing.
The Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) advocates for a flexible legal framework respecting local realities, and proportionate reporting obligations without additional burdens for businesses. It supports the obligation for the EU and Member States to include adaptation investment plans in their strategies and plans, and proposes public-private risk sharing instruments and economic incentives for households and small businesses to scale up climate resilience investments. AFME suggests encouraging insurers to reduce premiums for policyholders who implement verified resilience measures and complementing market-based risk transfer mechanisms with public support when risks become uninsurable.
Insurance Europe supports predictable and forward-looking adaptation plans with clear resilience targets and defined responsibilities across Member States, but warns that mandatory EU-wide climate trajectories, scenarios and assessments could overlook local realities, even if sector-specific. It calls for stable regulatory frameworks that support innovative insurance solutions, a prevention-first approach in public funding, strong public-private collaboration, and incentives for households and SMEs to invest in risk-prevention measures.
The industry association Eurelectric advocates a flexible and proportionate legislative framework in terms of common scenarios, harmonised risk assessments, adaptation targets, and risk ownership. It particularly recommends establishing targeted funding programmes and innovative financial instruments, fostering public-private partnerships, and accelerating innovation and technology deployment to enhance resilience in critical infrastructure.
The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) promotes a binding and enforceable legal framework, with increased funding and institutional capacity, requiring national adaptation plans with ecosystem-based measures. It demands long-term funding certainty, equitable resource access across regions and communities, and financing for measures that deliver both risk reduction and social benefits. The EEB also calls for strict application of the 'do no significant harm' principle, including in the EU budget. The framework should address the environmentally harmful subsidies and avoid over-reliance on market-based instruments like nature credits. It should also integrate climate-related stress tests and physical risk valuation into public and private finance and track resilience outcomes in terms of wellbeing, ecosystem functionality, and social protection coverage.
The European Geosciences Union (EGU) recommends proactively embedding climate resilience across key sectors. It supports common legislation integrating multi-hazard and cascading risk assessments in planning and investment, with mandatory EU-wide baselines and acceptable risk levels, clear targets, obligations, institutional risk ownership, definitions and indicators, and socio-economic data for exposure and vulnerability. It also suggests requiring national legal frameworks on adaptation. EGU proposes measures for protecting people and supporting local action such as establishing harmonised protection standards for planning and critical services. It suggests systematically comparing adaptation financing needs between Member States; strengthening financial incentives through tax measures and instruments like resilience bonds and blended finance; aligning insurance incentives with climate adaptation investment and de-risking insurance markets; developing EU-level risk pooling; and prioritising Member States most affected by the insurance gap.
In December 2025, the Committee of the Regions (CoR) called for an EU 2050 climate adaptation target and a proactive rather than reactive framework, based on 'science to action' approach, with harmonised reporting obligations, and clear accountability and enforcement mechanisms. It also urged for stronger monitoring and evaluation of climate risks and vulnerabilities, and climate proofing. The framework must integrate a climate justice approach and the 'do no significant harm' principle. The resilience finance should focus on nature-positive investments with long-term co-benefits for societies and economies. The CoR called for the use of innovative financing tools (e.g. revolving funds, green public procurement and public-private collaboration). It encouraged Member States to introduce tax incentives for private financing and the Commission to assess EU solidarity mechanisms such as reinsurance. It also called on insurers to incentivise investments made by regions and cities in resilient infrastructure, smart land use and improved data quality.
There is also strong support among policymakers, stakeholders and citizens for easy and open access to harmonised, high-quality quantitative data on local hazards and vulnerabilities.
European Parliament views
In its resolution of 19 September 2024, the European Parliament urges the Commission to present an EU adaptation plan with concrete legislative proposals to support and coordinate Member States' actions on preparedness, planning and cross-border cooperation. The plan must strengthen the resilience of EU societies to climate change impacts and ensure regular science-based risk assessments, measurable resilience objectives, and a 'just adaptation' approach. Parliament also warns that weather extremes challenge many economic sectors, particularly agriculture. Finally, it recommends the use of advanced Copernicus services and remote sensing data in support of preventive measures.
In 2022, the Parliament already called on the Commission to propose a comprehensive, ambitious and legally binding European climate adaptation framework, including appropriate legislative tools and binding and quantifiable targets, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable regions. It urged the Commission to prepare short-, medium- and long- term climate risk assessments for the EU and to complete, by the summer of 2023, an EU climate resilience stress test for key infrastructure.
Endnotes
Classification
Policy areas: Environment
Regions: European Union
Committees: Environment, Climate and Food Safety (ENVI)
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